Search results for strategist@dailyfx.com (Jamie Saettele
The euro / dollar rallied 400 pips in 3 hours at the end of US trading. Before getting too excited, keep the move in perspective.
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Watch this short term trendline (from 6/29) as a point of reference for the short term trend. A push above the line gives scope to a larger reversal and...
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The Yen crosses are testing support. Some pairs may be in ranges that will last weeks while others look determined to break support.
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-EURGBP resistance begins at .92 -ERUCHF completing decline from December top? -EURCAD bullish above 1.5908
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Since the EURUSD low on 3/4 at 1.2456, the pair has made higher highs and higher lows. While this is the simplest of observations, it warns of a trend...
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The GBPUSD is failing at the top of a short term channel. This channel is spurious, meaning that it is not defined by Elliott waves. such channels do not...
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The EURUSD rally from yesterday's low reversed at the 50% retracement of the decline from 1.4350. Lower highs since 1.4375 indicate that the EURUSD may...
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EURUSD Long-Term Technical Forecast
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The GBPUSD drop from 1.7629 may serve to correct the advance from 1.6789. Within the decline, there would be 2 equal legs at 1.7021. Look for support near...
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The USDCAD is nearing resistance from the 11/20 high at 1.2993. The drop from 1.2993 counts as an impulse (5 waves), indicating that the rally from 1.2120...
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-US dollar positioning favors bears -British Pound and New Zealand Dollar positioning favors bulls
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The recent corrective rally in the emerging market currencies appears to have stalled out and both classical and wave analysis show scope for a resumption...
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The EURGBP, EURAUD, and EURNZD appear to be forming bullish bases. Reward/risk is heavily skewed in favor of bulls.
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OPEN ORDERS/TRADES * INDICATES TRADE HAS BEEN TRIGGERED The GBPJPY is attempting a break from a short term head and shoulders bottom. Trading above 153.68...
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The British Pound crosses have reversed following major gains. There may an opportunity to get bullish the GBPNZD on this dip.
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Patterns in the AUD/USD and NZD/USD suggest that large rallies are underway. The EUR/USD is not as clear, although holding last week's low is bullish as...
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The AUDUSD is working higher in a c wave that should end above .70. Near term, price ideally remains above Friday’s at .6486 although the trend is up as...
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The NZDUSD drop from .5454 is viewed as wave b in an a-b-c corrective advance from .4958. A c wave is expected to exceed .5454 and challenge resistance...
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-EURUSD resistance at 1.3415; trend still down -AUDUSD sights on multi month high -USDJPY still ranging at 61.8% -USDCAD tests key support
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The first week of August is ending with US dollar strength. While possible that this is a key reversal, key levels remain intact. EURUSD support extends...
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The US dollar's losing ways continue as the USDCAD trades at a 2009 low. The only pair that offers reversal evidence is the NZDUSD - which should be monitored...
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US Dollar/Canadian Dollar Long Term Technical Forecast The USDCAD break through its long term trendline strongly indicates that a long term bottom is in...
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-euro / dollar support from November breakout level -USDJPY finds a bottom -British Pound ready to surge -AUDUSD and NZDUSD back to .68 and .53
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Short term structure has not confirmed that a top is in place. It is possible that a triangle is underway but the pattern is not mature enough at this...
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There is no change to the US dollar bottoming scenario. Of note today is that AUDUSD is nearing Fibonacci resistance, which is at .8095.
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Today's low in the GBPJPY lacked confirmation from RSI, which warns of at least a temporary low in the GBPJPY. 151.75 is potential short term support and...
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The bottom line is that EURUSD bearish sentiment is extreme. News headlines and stories are usually overly bullish at tops and bearish at bottoms. One...
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The difference in positioning between speculative and commercial traders remains large; indicating that a turn towards dollar weakness is probable.
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The euro / dollar staged a rally to 1.2850 today in what many are proclaiming as the beginning of a larger bull move. The Wall Street Journal states that...
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New Zealand Dollar - US Dollar Monthly Technical Forecast The NZDUSD bear is alive and well. Like the AUDUSD, the NZDUSD decline from its 2008 high was...
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-EURUSD resistance at 1.3415 -GBPUSD triangle, support below 1.40 -AUDUSD and NZDUSD sell off - tops in place? -USDCHF support at 1.1350
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- EURUSD bullish above 1.4000 - GBPUSD wave ii of diagonal may be done - USDCAD 5 waves complete; headed back to 1.11-1.12 - USDCHF bearish below 1.0900
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The Euro crosses are mosly constructive but the better opportunities are in the Yen crosses - which could break higher. Stops should be placed below the...
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Longer term downtrends in the Yen crosses may resume from current levels. Another possibility is that larger corrections will last for a few more weeks...
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The Yen crosses are in large corrections. Range opportunities exist.
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-Euro / Yen triangle or flat pattern underway -British Pound / Yen holds low but reversal unconfirmed -AUDJPY and NZDJPY rallies expected to accelerate...
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The 13 week COT index for the New Zealand Dollar has bounced from 0. This warns of a bearish sentiment extreme and bottom. Significantly increased commercial...
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-EURGBP drops below support line -EURCHF towards 1.49 -EURCAD drops below support line -EURAUD and EURNZD may be bottoming
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A recent divergence between the Euro futures contract and the US dollar index is just one piece of evidence suggesting that the EURUSD has reversed course....
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I've advocated long positions in the EURGBP for weeks but today's reversal just shy an important 100% extension leaves the pair vulnerable to weakness...
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British Pound/US Dollar Long Term Technical Forecast As written here last month, the 5 wave advance from 1.3682 is complete at 2.1160. The GBPUSD has already...
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High volatility within the confines of a range indicates heightened trading activity. This dynamic is what leads to directional breakouts and extended...
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-GBPCHF vulnerable to a drop below 1.6160 but larger trend is bullish -GBPAUD breaks above trendline and 200 day SMA
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-EURUSD pressing against top of diagonal -GBPUSD B wave low may in place -AUDUSD trading above resistance line -USDJPY short term triangle? -USDCAD support...
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The EURUSD, GBPUSD, and AUDUSD key levels remain intact. The US dollar bottoming scenario remains favored.
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The EURUSD is in a congestive state that will eventually break. Evidence warns of a sharp dollar advance, so the break could very well be lower. Evidence...
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USDJPY Long-Term Technical Forecast
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The EURUSD is at its lowest since March 2007. With volatility downs significantly from last week's levels, be wary of a false 'breakdown'.
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The British Pound crosses are mostly bearish. The GBPAUD, specifically, looks as though it may break lower quickly.
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US Dollar - Swiss Franc Monthly Technical Forecast A 5 wave advance from .9634 is viewed as the first bull leg in a multi-year uptrend. Like the EURUSD,...
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New Zealand Dollar Short Head and Shoulders Pattern -EURUSD resistance at 1.34 -AUDUSD top not yet confirmed -NZDUSD short term head and shoulders top -USDJPY...
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- EURJPY correction looks mature - CADJPY resistance at 86.00 - AUDJPY rally tests former support line - NZDJPY and GBPJPY remain above support lines
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The dollar bear is strong but exhaustion will eventually set in. The EURUSD rally above 1.4720 satisfies the minimum requirement for wave C (from 1.2456)....
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The British pound crosses, particularly the GBPNZD, are likely to work higher from near current levels. Risk on the GBPNZD is about 600 pips but the bullish...
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The British Pound crosses have dropped into long term support.
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-Euro support in 1.30-1.33 range -British Pound inverse head and shoulders pattern? -USDCAD bullish potential above 1.1459
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-AUDCHF triangle bearish objective below October low -AUDCAD in center of large range..no direction -AUDNZD to 1.20-1.21
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-EURUSD range continues -GBPUSD support at 1.4765 -AUDUSD tests support line -USDCAD resistance at 1.2190
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- EURGBP secondary low - EURCHF remains in multi-month range - EURCAD approaches former congestion - EURAUD and EURNZD potential for reversals
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The GBPUSD has surged through 1.6130 and is testing the former neckline from the September head and shoulders breakdown. There is Fibonacci resistance...
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Our Forex Monthly Technical and Fundamental Outlook report examines long-term forecasts for major currencies, as we explore key themes ranging from chart...
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The euro / dollar remains in a bear trend and could fall to a new low (below 1.23) this week.
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-Commercial buying favors British Pound bulls -USDCAD nearing a top according to COT data -AUD and NZD COT data favors downside
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-GBPCHF surges from lower end of range -GBPCAD forming bullish base -GBPAUD and GBPNZD may be resuming longer term downtrends
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-EURJPY 5 waves down from 139.17 confirms top -GBPJPY head and shoulders top / neckline break -CHFJPY bearish below 89.85 -CADJPY bearish below 86.09 -AUDJPY...
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Yesterday's dollar advance should be respected. Look to buy pullbacks.
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A load of evidence suggests that a US dollar top is in place. Coming event risk presents an opportunity to fade any post-release USD strength.
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At 3 year lows, the EURJPY is approaching the June 2005 low at 130.57. Noting the oversold condition that prevails, this level could provide support that...
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The Australian Dollar crosses have rallied to the top of recent ranges; which presents a shorting opportunity.
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US Dollar - Canadian Dollar Monthly Technical Forecast The multi-year count treats the decline from 1.6194 as a correction (zigzag), indicating that the...
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-EURUSD faces resistance ahead of last week's high -GBPUSD large correction either a flat or triangle -AUDUSD threatens yearly high -NZDUSD structure still...
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1.4850, which is the 100% extension of the 1.2327- 1.4723 rally, has been one of the levels that we’ve been focusing on as a possible turning point. Price...
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Underlying sentiment along with technical considerations favor dollar strength from here. Risk is clearly defined.
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Volatile ranges have taken hold in the EURUSD and GBPUSD and will probably last into next week (perhaps a bit longer) before terminal thrusts into fresh...
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New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar Long-Term Exchange Rate Technical Forecast The NZDUSD count from the top is not nearly as clear as the AUDUSD count. Still,...
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NZD: New Zealand Dollar speculators are net short and commercials net long.
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Dollar weakness late in the day resulted in the AUDUSD closing above its support line that has held since March 10. It is still possible that a top is...
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The USDCAD rally is probably just a correction. The decline from 1.0965 is viewed as the final leg of the decline from 1.3068. The decline divides into...
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The US dollar is strong, but signs point to a short term top forming soon for the US dollar.
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Positioning is neutral for most currenies, suggesting that the US dollar may continue strengthening.
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Support ahead of 1.30 is strong from the top side of former trendline resistance and the November 25th and 26th highs at 1.3085. Structurally, a sharp...
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-EURUSD consolidates before next leg up -GBPUSD low may be in place -AUDUSD and NZDUSD advances well underway
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- EURUSD resistance 1.4015/50 - GBPUSD breakdown level at 1.6190 - AUDUSD .8124 key level - USDJPY resistance at 97.20
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The USDJPY is approaching a trendline that has held price action since the 95.72 low. The line is near 107.25. A break below there would present a bearish...
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The world is enamored with US dollars and Japanese Yen. Channel support for EURUSD and GBPUSD suggest a potential end (at least temporarily) to this dynamic.
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The surge to 2.70 should be fully retraced and the 2008 low at 2.0291 will eventually be broken in the GBPAUD.
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Euro - US Dollar Monthly Technical Forecast Last month, I wrote that “the decline from 1.6040 can be treated as either a 3 wave decline (wave A) or a 5...
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-GBPCHF approaches resistance -GBPCAD prepares to break higher -GBPAUD and GBPNZD should see rebounds
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Today's break below 93.50 negates the competing bullish triangle count. The break is significant because it leaves us with a strong bearish count (series...
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The GBPUSD has rallied (from neckline support) is encountering potentially strong resistance from the 9/15 low and 61.8% of the decline from 1.6573 - at...
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Patterns are not clear at the current juncture, which is the hallmark of a correction. Still, coming under 1.4600 in the EURUSD indicates additional bearish...
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Range traders can take advantage of the EURJPY's 900 pip range as long as it holds. Beware that an upside break could see a run-up to 140.
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US Dollar/Japanese Yen Long-Term Exchange Rate Technical Forecast Bigger picture, "a 4th wave triangle (that took 12 years) is complete at 124.30 as a...
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Although a corrective decline may be underway , COT positioning continues to favor long term dollar bulls.
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CHF: The 13 week index recently increased significantly and got as high as 83.
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Look to buy USD dips as the week progresses. Specifically, there may be an opportunity to sell the GBPUSD. Structure is bearish as long as price is below...
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COT data is yet another piece of the puzzle that warns of a USD low. EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD, and CHF long positions are at their highest levels in year(s)....
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Remaining above 1.3485 keeps EURUSD structure bullish. A clear 5 wave rally from last week's low is evident in the GBPUSD, indicating that the larger trend...
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We begin the week with the US dollar in a range. The EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD have bounced from near the lower end of recent ranges in what may...
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-EURJPY back to 122 over next several weeks -CHFJPY back to 82 over next several weeks -AUDJPY 62.28 defines trend -NZDJPY 50.58 defines trend
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-AUDCHF tests channel resistance -AUDCAD breaks above resistance -AUDNZD to continue lower
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The US dollar remains confined to a range. Since 6/3, the EURUSD has ranged between 1.4337-1.3748 and the pair is in the center of that range now. Confidence...
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The clearest short term pattern belongs to the AUDUSD. Nearly all pairs appear to be setting up for at least short term reversals though.
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British Pound crosses are finding support. In particular, the GBPNZD looks ready to rally.
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NZD: The NZD index has turned from 0. Speculators were recently net short the largest amount of NZD on record (the record only goes back a few years though).
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-GBPCHF breaks above trendline -GBPCAD testing trendline / 50 day SMA -GBPAUD rally pauses shy of 2.30
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As I've written in the technicals recently, NZDUSD structure is bearish as long as price is below .6090. After breaking below a short term support line...
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A resistance line that touches 3 highs (4 including today's high) since 7/2 along with the 151.00-152.40 congestion zone may provide resistance to further...
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The EURUSD reversal from the top of a short term channel is confirmed by a drop below an even shorter term trendline. Wave structure suggests that this...
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The Euro crosses (except for the EURCHF) will likely weaken in the weeks ahead.
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The week begins with the Australian and New Zealand dollars testing resistance. Breaks above resistance could lead to large rallies to .75 and .65, respectively.
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-euro / dollar potential support at 1.35 and 1.33 -Britsh Pound tests multi-year lows -USDCAD bullish above 1.1459 -NZDUSD expected to exceed .6090 soon
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-EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDNZD, NZDUSD and USDCHF remain in ranges -USDJPY strong uptrend for 8th straight day -USDCAD enters strong uptrend condition - breakout?
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About the DFX Trend Index The DFX Trend Index ranges from -100 to +100 and is updated everyday at 5 pm eastern US time. The numbers correspond to specific...
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In the event of a push above the Asian session high, 1.4200/20 is potential resistance for the EURUSD. The trend remains bearish below 1.4330.
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The Yen crosses continue to fall and the decline is not over yet.
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The GBPUSD has broken above a trendline that is drawn off of the 10/20, 10/30, and 11/19 highs. The break is in line with the observation in the Daily...
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-euro / dollar slips below 1.28 -GBPUSD Tests 1.35 -USDCHF resistance at 1.18
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CHF: Speculators are net short and commercials net long.
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-AUDCHF and AUDCAD at risk of reversing -AUDNZD in center of multi-week range; upside favored
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The EURUSD has held 1.40, which is pyschological support. A move back to 1.44 over the next several days may be in the works.
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Sentiment among major currencies, as measured by the CFTC's Commitments of traders report, has not changed much over the past week. Bullish Swiss Francs...
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The EURUSD trend is considered bullish as long as price is above 1.2871. Support tonight is at 1.2984 (50% of 1.2871-1.3097) and 1.2957 (61.8%). 1.2984...
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-EURUSD topping -GBPUSD back to at leat 1.4650 -AUDUSD failing ahead of key level -NZDUSD structure bearish below .6090 -USDCAD bullish above 1.22
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The US dollar decline last week did nothing to clarify the bigger picture as majors remain stuck in ranges. A USD bounce is expected near term. Yen wave...
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The US dollar rally continues and evidence continues to mount that the recent US dollar low is significant. A short term EURUSD bearish target is 1.4450.
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Since 9/16, the USDJPY has ranged between 103.50 and 108, most recently testing 103.50 today. The USDJPY has rebounded sharply from today's low, keeping...
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Futures positioning has not changed much in the past few weeks, therefore conditions remain ripe for a USD reversal.
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NZD: The NZD 13 week index has turned from 100 but the 52 week index is at 37 and increasing.
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Speculative US Dollar long positions continue to increase as do commercial short positions. Until the 13 week index is at 100, this is bullish evidence....
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-EURUSD should break below false channel soon -GBPUSD at short term resistance line -Keep USDJPY bearish risk at 99.75 -USDCAD tests 1.25
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A massive triple top / head and shoulders top (which is a type of triple top) may be playing out in the EURJPY. Tops in April, June, and August leave the...
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The USD and Yen (especially) remain strong. The Yen looks likely to continue its trend while signals regarding the US dollar are mixed.
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There is potential EURUSD resistance from the 11/25 low at 1.2804. 1.28-1.2970 (11/27 high) is heavy congestion. This zone could provide resistance required...
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I wrote in the Daily Technicals this morning that "I favor the count that treats the decline from 1.3333 and rally from 1.3116 as waves a and b of a flat....
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As I have focused on for many weeks, the long term trend in the USDCAD is up as long as price is above 1.2350 (stops under there). Today, the pair has...
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The euro will take center stage tomorrow morning when the ECB interest rate decision and post announcement communiqué with Trichet takes place. Despite...
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The Yen crosses are vulnerable to a period of corrective / consolidation behavior before heading lower.
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Australian Dollar - US Dollar Long-Term Technical Forecast I wrote last month that "the initial bearish target is .7265." The AUDUSD fell well below there...
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Assuming that a triangle is complete at yesterday's high (1.2967), the rally over the past few hours in the EURUSD is best treated as the final leg of...
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