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The euro / dollar rallied 400 pips in 3 hours at the end of US trading. Before getting too excited, keep the move in perspective.
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Remaining above 1.3485 keeps EURUSD structure bullish. A clear 5 wave rally from last week's low is evident in the GBPUSD, indicating that the larger trend...
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The euro rally is testing resistance against its counterparts.
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-euro / dollar finds support at Fibonacci / former resistance -GBPUSD secondary low at 1.5068? -USDCAD nearing triangle completion -AUDUSD and NZDUSD to...
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-EURUSD faces resistance ahead of last week's high -GBPUSD large correction either a flat or triangle -AUDUSD threatens yearly high -NZDUSD structure still...
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Today's break below 93.50 negates the competing bullish triangle count. The break is significant because it leaves us with a strong bearish count (series...
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The GBPUSD has rallied (from neckline support) is encountering potentially strong resistance from the 9/15 low and 61.8% of the decline from 1.6573 - at...
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The bottom line is that EURUSD bearish sentiment is extreme. News headlines and stories are usually overly bullish at tops and bearish at bottoms. One...
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British Pound crosses are finding support. In particular, the GBPNZD looks ready to rally.
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The Euro crosses are mostly in uptrends. The EURCAD may be ready to break to multi-year highs.
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-AUDCHF triangle bearish objective below October low -AUDCAD in center of large range..no direction -AUDNZD to 1.20-1.21
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CHF: The 13 week index recently increased significantly and got as high as 83.
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Look to buy USD dips as the week progresses. Specifically, there may be an opportunity to sell the GBPUSD. Structure is bearish as long as price is below...
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COT data is yet another piece of the puzzle that warns of a USD low. EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD, and CHF long positions are at their highest levels in year(s)....
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The British pound crosses, particularly the GBPNZD, are likely to work higher from near current levels. Risk on the GBPNZD is about 600 pips but the bullish...
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From the 10/28 top, the USDJPY has formed a potential head and shoulders top. Coming below roughly 97 would confirm a break of the neckline. The bearish...
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The COT index for the British Pound has also dropped from 0 but the percentage of commercial traders that are long is high (close to 80%) and the composite...
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-GBPCHF surges from lower end of range -GBPCAD forming bullish base -GBPAUD and GBPNZD may be resuming longer term downtrends
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The US dollar remains confined to a range. Since 6/3, the EURUSD has ranged between 1.4337-1.3748 and the pair is in the center of that range now. Confidence...
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The Yen crosses continue to fall and the decline is not over yet.
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Patterns have formed over the past several months in the Yen crosses that suggest a rally is imminent.
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-Weekly RSI positive cross -Breakout opportunity against 126.40 -Measured objective above 138
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-GBPCHF approaches resistance -GBPCAD prepares to break higher -GBPAUD and GBPNZD should see rebounds
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A resistance line that touches 3 highs (4 including today's high) since 7/2 along with the 151.00-152.40 congestion zone may provide resistance to further...
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The EURUSD reversal from the top of a short term channel is confirmed by a drop below an even shorter term trendline. Wave structure suggests that this...
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A load of evidence suggests that a US dollar top is in place. Coming event risk presents an opportunity to fade any post-release USD strength.
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Euro bears are hoping that 1.30 provides the resistance needed in order to bring about a reversal of recent strength. Still, a change in trend is not considered...
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NZD: New Zealand Dollar speculators are net short and commercials net long.
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About the DFX Trend Index The DFX Trend Index ranges from -100 to +100 and is updated everyday at 5 pm eastern US time. The numbers correspond to specific...
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In the event of a push above the Asian session high, 1.4200/20 is potential resistance for the EURUSD. The trend remains bearish below 1.4330.
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Underlying sentiment along with technical considerations favor dollar strength from here. Risk is clearly defined.
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The dollar is breaking out to the upside once again. The British Pound has dropped to a new low and the euro is probably not far behind.
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-EURGBP resistance begins at .92 -ERUCHF completing decline from December top? -EURCAD bullish above 1.5908
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-EURUSD consolidates before next leg up -GBPUSD low may be in place -AUDUSD and NZDUSD advances well underway
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-AUDCHF and AUDCAD at risk of reversing -AUDNZD in center of multi-week range; upside favored
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The USD and Yen (especially) remain strong. The Yen looks likely to continue its trend while signals regarding the US dollar are mixed.
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Aside from the British Pound dropping to a yearly low against the US dollar, nothing has happened over the last 24 hours to alter the short term technical...
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-US dollar positioning favors bears -British Pound and New Zealand Dollar positioning favors bulls
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As I've written in the technicals recently, NZDUSD structure is bearish as long as price is below .6090. After breaking below a short term support line...
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The US dollar decline last week did nothing to clarify the bigger picture as majors remain stuck in ranges. A USD bounce is expected near term. Yen wave...
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The US dollar rally continues and evidence continues to mount that the recent US dollar low is significant. A short term EURUSD bearish target is 1.4450.
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The USDJPY is approaching a trendline that has held price action since the 95.72 low. The line is near 107.25. A break below there would present a bearish...
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COT positioning has changed very little in the past few weeks, even as the US dollar has stregthened signficantly and then reversed violently. Still, some...
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The EURJPY has crossed above trendline resistance drawn off of the November 4th and November 25th highs. Staying above 118.37 keeps the EURJPY on track...
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Although a corrective decline may be underway , COT positioning continues to favor long term dollar bulls.
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-EURUSD should break below false channel soon -GBPUSD at short term resistance line -Keep USDJPY bearish risk at 99.75 -USDCAD tests 1.25
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A massive triple top / head and shoulders top (which is a type of triple top) may be playing out in the EURJPY. Tops in April, June, and August leave the...
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Patterns are not clear at the current juncture, which is the hallmark of a correction. Still, coming under 1.4600 in the EURUSD indicates additional bearish...
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The Yen crosses are testing support. Some pairs may be in ranges that will last weeks while others look determined to break support.
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-euro / dollar support from November breakout level -USDJPY finds a bottom -British Pound ready to surge -AUDUSD and NZDUSD back to .68 and .53
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-AUDCHF tests channel resistance -AUDCAD breaks above resistance -AUDNZD to continue lower
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The euro will take center stage tomorrow morning when the ECB interest rate decision and post announcement communiqué with Trichet takes place. Despite...
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Consolidation since last Friday may mark the beginning of a larger reversal. Pair such as the EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD could be building bullish...
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The USDCAD is nearing resistance from the 11/20 high at 1.2993. The drop from 1.2993 counts as an impulse (5 waves), indicating that the rally from 1.2120...
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-GBPCHF breaks above trendline -GBPCAD testing trendline / 50 day SMA -GBPAUD rally pauses shy of 2.30
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-EURUSD topping -GBPUSD back to at leat 1.4650 -AUDUSD failing ahead of key level -NZDUSD structure bearish below .6090 -USDCAD bullish above 1.22
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Although the US dollar could stage a short term rally (a few days), evidence favors a bearish break from the month + consolidation. The EURUSD and USDCHF...
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British Pound event risk tonight should result in an active GBPUSD. The pair has declined significantly over the past few weeks and traded at its lowest...
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The clearest short term pattern belongs to the AUDUSD. Nearly all pairs appear to be setting up for at least short term reversals though.
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Patterns in the AUD/USD and NZD/USD suggest that large rallies are underway. The EUR/USD is not as clear, although holding last week's low is bullish as...
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The AUDUSD is working higher in a c wave that should end above .70. Near term, price ideally remains above Friday’s at .6486 although the trend is up as...
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-EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDNZD, NZDUSD and USDCHF remain in ranges -USDJPY strong uptrend for 8th straight day -USDCAD enters strong uptrend condition - breakout?
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-EURGBP target area begins at .8190 -EURCAD bearish below 1.6014 -EURNZD closing in on an important low
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The Yen crosses are at risk of falling sharply. Former support lines have held as resistance. Additional bearish evidence includes RSI divergence at recent...
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The Euro crosses (except for the EURCHF) will likely weaken in the weeks ahead.
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-GBPCHF vulnerable to a drop below 1.6160 but larger trend is bullish -GBPAUD breaks above trendline and 200 day SMA
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CHF: Speculators are net short and commercials net long.
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The EURCAD rally from the June low at 1.5342 has brought the pair to a resistance line that is drawn off of the 12/30/08 and 3/20 highs. The line is reinforced...
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The EURGBP may be at a historical turning point.
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The euro / dollar staged a rally to 1.2850 today in what many are proclaiming as the beginning of a larger bull move. The Wall Street Journal states that...
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The EURUSD trend is considered bullish as long as price is above 1.2871. Support tonight is at 1.2984 (50% of 1.2871-1.3097) and 1.2957 (61.8%). 1.2984...
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-EURUSD structure remains bearish -GBPUSD triangle still a possibility -AUDUSD and NZDUSD .7275 and .6090 key levels
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Recent highs in the EURUSD, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD and lows in the USDCAD and USDCHF are divergent with momentum readings. This technical consideration and...
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The US dollar is consolidating last week's gains. The most interesting pattern is seen in the AUDUSD, which shows a 5 wave decline from it's 2009 high.
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The EURUSD has held 1.40, which is pyschological support. A move back to 1.44 over the next several days may be in the works.
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The Yen crosses are in large corrections. Range opportunities exist.
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-Euro / Yen triangle or flat pattern underway -British Pound / Yen holds low but reversal unconfirmed -AUDJPY and NZDJPY rallies expected to accelerate...
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Speculative US Dollar long positions continue to increase as do commercial short positions. Until the 13 week index is at 100, this is bullish evidence....
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A triangle may very well be complete from yesteday's high as wave b of a small 2nd wave correction from 1.3747. A terminal thrust in wave c would complete...
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Since 9/16, the USDJPY has ranged between 103.50 and 108, most recently testing 103.50 today. The USDJPY has rebounded sharply from today's low, keeping...
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High volatility within the confines of a range indicates heightened trading activity. This dynamic is what leads to directional breakouts and extended...
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-Commercial buying favors British Pound bulls -USDCAD nearing a top according to COT data -AUD and NZD COT data favors downside
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As I have focused on for many weeks, the long term trend in the USDCAD is up as long as price is above 1.2350 (stops under there). Today, the pair has...
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COT data suggests that the US dollar is closer to bottoming than topping although a bottom may not form for another several weeks.
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The GBPJPY finds itself at an interesting short term juncture. The rally failed at a line extended from the 8/10 and 8/24 highs this morning. Rallying...
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The FX market is quiet for a change. This is unlikely to last; expect recent ranges to break down.
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The British Pound crosses are mostly bearish. The GBPAUD, specifically, looks as though it may break lower quickly.
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-EURUSD support at 1.2880-1.2910 -USDJPY in center of 2 month range -GBPUSD rolls over ahead of 1.50 -USDCHF completing short term diagonal
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CHF: The 13 week index has increased significantly and is now at 83.
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The USDJPY, EURJPY, and GBPJPY have failed at trendline resistance over the last several sessions. Expectations are for declines in the crosses with short...
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Traders will be focusing on the British Pound tonght and in particular the BoE interest rate decision. The GBPUSD has consolidated in what appears to be...
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The Yen crosses are vulnerable to a period of corrective / consolidation behavior before heading lower.
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The British Pound crosses have dropped into long term support.
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-Euro support in 1.30-1.33 range -British Pound inverse head and shoulders pattern? -USDCAD bullish potential above 1.1459
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-EURUSD bulls and bears jockey for position -GBPUSD short term picture unclear -AUDUSD compressed -USDCAD threatens break
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Terminal thrusts from triangles in the EURJPY, CHFJPY, AUDJPY, and NZDJPY may be complete. There is head and shoulders pattern forming in the GBPJPY and...
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Latest CFTC Release Dated August 18, 2009: The COT Index is the percentile of the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning...
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The Yen crosses may have completed corrective rallies last week. If so, then the pairs are headed to new lows.
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The euro / dollar remains in a bear trend and could fall to a new low (below 1.23) this week.
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Support ahead of 1.30 is strong from the top side of former trendline resistance and the November 25th and 26th highs at 1.3085. Structurally, a sharp...
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NZD: The 13 week index has increased from 0.
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The USDCAD rally from 1.1507 is considered wave 5 within a 5 wave rally from 1.0782. The pair is breaking higher from a triangle (wave 4) and breaks from...
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Keep your eyes on the EURCAD. The pair is setting up for a break higher from a multi-month wedge (click to view the wedge). The short term rally from 1.5400...
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The GBPUSD drop from 1.7629 may serve to correct the advance from 1.6789. Within the decline, there would be 2 equal legs at 1.7021. Look for support near...
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The Australian Dollar crosses have rallied to the top of recent ranges; which presents a shorting opportunity.
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Since mid-Friday, a head and shoulders top has formed on the NZDUSD. The pattern is intact against .5454 and a drop below .5239 is expected in the near...
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-EURUSD resistance at 1.3415; trend still down -AUDUSD sights on multi month high -USDJPY still ranging at 61.8% -USDCAD tests key support
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A breakdown in the US dollar is possible this week as ranges are being put to the test. Look to sell US dollar rallies.
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The dollar decline has accelerated and the move has all the characteristics of a panic decline. 1.4650 is potential EURUSD support. Coming much under there...
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The Euro may head lower from the top of long term ranges against the EURCAD, EURAUD, and EURNZD.
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Volatile ranges have taken hold in the EURUSD and GBPUSD and will probably last into next week (perhaps a bit longer) before terminal thrusts into fresh...
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In 2008, a perfect storm hit the world financial markets, flooding hundreds of firms to the level of bankruptcy and forcing many investors to liquidate...
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-EURUSD middle of channel, no directional bias -GBPUSD down over 400 pips, 1.35 in sight -AUDUSD .6247 important level for bulls -NZDUSD .4892 critical -USDJPY...
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The GBPUSD is failing at the top of a short term channel. This channel is spurious, meaning that it is not defined by Elliott waves. such channels do not...
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The EURUSD rally from yesterday's low reversed at the 50% retracement of the decline from 1.4350. Lower highs since 1.4375 indicate that the EURUSD may...
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Little has changed over the past 24 hours. The EURUSD and GBPUSD may find demand at the bottom of their recent ranges.
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Positioning is neutral for most currenies, suggesting that the US dollar may continue strengthening.
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-EURJPY back to 122 over next several weeks -CHFJPY back to 82 over next several weeks -AUDJPY 62.28 defines trend -NZDJPY 50.58 defines trend
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-EURUSD supported at current level from short term Fibonacci -GBPUSD tests short term support line -AUDUSD support down to .6840 -NZDUSD bounces ahead...
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The EURGBP, EURAUD, and EURNZD appear to be forming bullish bases. Reward/risk is heavily skewed in favor of bulls.
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OPEN ORDERS/TRADES * INDICATES TRADE HAS BEEN TRIGGERED The GBPJPY is attempting a break from a short term head and shoulders bottom. Trading above 153.68...
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The difference in positioning between speculative and commercial traders remains large; indicating that a turn towards dollar weakness is probable.
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The surge to 2.70 should be fully retraced and the 2008 low at 2.0291 will eventually be broken in the GBPAUD.
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-EURUSD approaches 1.27...lower end of recent range -USDJPY holding 21 day SMA and short term support line -GBPUSD RSI divergence on hourly -USDCAD bullish...
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-EURUSD resistance at 1.3415; trend still down -AUDUSD sights on multi month high -USDJPY still ranging at 61.8% -USDCAD tests key support
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The first week of August is ending with US dollar strength. While possible that this is a key reversal, key levels remain intact. EURUSD support extends...
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The US dollar's losing ways continue as the USDCAD trades at a 2009 low. The only pair that offers reversal evidence is the NZDUSD - which should be monitored...
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The Yen crosses are falling, with some making multi-year lows in the process. Weakness is likely to continue. Levels where the bearish outlook is no longer...
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Range traders can take advantage of the EURJPY's 900 pip range as long as it holds. Beware that an upside break could see a run-up to 140.
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-euro / dollar potential support at 1.35 and 1.33 -Britsh Pound tests multi-year lows -USDCAD bullish above 1.1459 -NZDUSD expected to exceed .6090 soon
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-British Pound only bearish signal -Bullish signals for Euro, Japanese Yen, and Swiss Franc
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There is no change to the US dollar bottoming scenario. Of note today is that AUDUSD is nearing Fibonacci resistance, which is at .8095.
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Today's low in the GBPJPY lacked confirmation from RSI, which warns of at least a temporary low in the GBPJPY. 151.75 is potential short term support and...
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The most bearish count places the EURUSD in a 3rd of a 3rd wave from 1.4179. 1.3820 is potential short term resistance.
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We begin the week with the US dollar in a range. The EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD have bounced from near the lower end of recent ranges in what may...
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-euro / dollar slips below 1.28 -GBPUSD Tests 1.35 -USDCHF resistance at 1.18
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-EURUSD trades sideways...looking to sell a break higher -GBPUSD ending diagonal? -NZDUSD searching for a top -USDJPY threatening 99
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- EURUSD bullish above 1.4000 - GBPUSD wave ii of diagonal may be done - USDCAD 5 waves complete; headed back to 1.11-1.12 - USDCHF bearish below 1.0900
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The Euro crosses are mosly constructive but the better opportunities are in the Yen crosses - which could break higher. Stops should be placed below the...
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The EURUSD is at its lowest since March 2007. With volatility downs significantly from last week's levels, be wary of a false 'breakdown'.
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NZD: The NZD index has turned from 0. Speculators were recently net short the largest amount of NZD on record (the record only goes back a few years though).
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