Search results for Market Watch
By claiming that there is a "negative loop between the financial system and the broader economy," the International Monetary Fund is essentially saying that we will be stuck in this bear market forever – literally.&nb
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It would be easy enough to shred this analysis with a few facts -- such as CNN's exit polling, which showed that by income, voters earning $200,000 and above went for Obama, 52% to 46%...
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You don't have to be a genius to explain (or to understand) the reasons that led to the subprime debacle and credit crisis. Here's what I mean: To blow up the financial world, follow these steps...
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Anyone who needs evidence that the psychology of borrowers and lenders has shifted need look no further...
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I've read several details regarding Lehman's demise and learned some interesting facts. The bankruptcy filing was "pre-dawn" on the 15th, according to Bloomberg. The filing document is available in pdf form on the internet: it name
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The Federal Reserve's "Discount Rate Spread," for example, stayed below 40 basis points during the years 2003-2006. In 2007, it rose to a high of some 150 basis points. In the past week the spread has eclipsed 450 basis points -- a
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On December 16, the Dow Jones Indutsrial Average supposedly soared more than 300 points after the Federal Reserve cut rates to the record low .25% to 0% range. On December 17, the stock market slid back into negative territory. Explanation? How's th
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Sentiment reflects collective psychology, and collective psychology is cyclical. It moves in patterns. From this simple premise, you can go a long way toward being one of the few who do listen to forecasts that most people don't want to hear...
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It's the season for corporations to report their earnings, and everywhere you turn, analysts talk about earnings' influence on the broad stock market. Keep reading if you also think that earnings are what you should focus on in your investment strat
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We've all heard mainstream market commentators blame the recent DJIA declines on concerns with Greece's sovereign debts. But does that really explain the Dow's weakness? Let's looks at some evidence together.
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The truly remarkable part of the story is how early he saw them. Bob described the ways that many dominos would fall before some of them were even set up. His earlier book, At the Crest of the Tidal Wave was published in 1995, while Conquer the Cras
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Am I supposed to blame the stock market decline on Obama? I will if I have to, if someone will simply explain why it's his fault today when yesterday he got credit for the big "Election Day Rally."
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Many of main street's biggest economic soothsayers and scholars say the bear's end is in sight. According to a recent survey, "78% of institutional money managers believe the stock market is now undervalued." Stocks aren't cheap, s
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As long as you know how to type, few things are easier than entering an online trading order. What's difficult is winning on those trades. "Ease of trading" does not equal "ease of winning," yet inexperienced trad
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On October 6, the Reserve Bank of Australia surprised the global financial community with a .25% interest rate hike. If only conventional economists ever bothered to plot central banks’ decisions on a chart of bond yields, they would make
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During the past two weeks the liquidity crisis has grown worse literally by the day. And the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on Sept. 15 did indeed trigger this acute phase of the debacle. Perhaps this simple comparison can show the scale of
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Now, plenty of people say that borrowing to buy big new SUVs (etc.) is actually good for the economy, in a financial-stupidity-can-be-patriotic sort of way. But arguments like that prove that this country doesn't have too little patriotism, only too
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At some point, the burden of the U.S. national debt burden may result in a forced restructuring to avoid default. This restructuring will be on terms dictated to us by our creditors…one of whom is a communist regime. I wonder how agreeabl
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It’s counter-intuitive to think of stocks, rates, gold, oil, real estate, and commodities, all trending together over time, but that is exactly what these markets have done in recent years...
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Imagine the disappointment the Japanese faced in the 1990s. Their 1980s boom created enough wealth to buy landmarks like Rockefeller Center and Pebble Beach. But the 1990s turned inflation into deflation. Stimulus packages and bailouts failed to pro
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One short year ago, the US stock market was locked in a gut-wrenching tailspin. The major averages had plunged to their lowest level since Alan Greenspan had a full head of brown hair (i.e. 1987). And, according to the mainstream financial literatur
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An unending irony is that theoretical work spawns formulas that become the basis of financial models, in which fund managers, bank CEOs and regulators assume place an extraordinary measure of faith. How much faith, you ask
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As this icon of American manufacturing tries to stave off Chapter 11, many observers are asking: How did GM go from long-time leader and star – to – exemplar of failed business practices and faulty management?...
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Two art school students were in a bar throwing back shots and comparing their commodity trading spread sheets on their iPhones:
“I am getting so-o-o-o creamed in corn; I have no yen for getting pounded in the loonie; forex news :: view details »
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“I am getting so-o-o-o creamed in corn; I have no yen for getting pounded in the loonie; forex news :: view details »
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Once you know the direction of the dominant trend, "countertrend" moves then become the major challenge. These are more near term. We've said the dominant trend is downward for virtually the entire year it's been unfolding -- and t
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As the year 2007 rolled into 2008, the mainstream financial experts were certain of one thing (if you don't count death and taxes): Inflation would take the U.S. economy by storm. The picture of Treasury Yields, however, foretold an entirely differe
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It's common knowledge that if you look directly at the sun, you go blind; or at the very least, become visually impaired. In matters of finance, however, "looking" directly at the solar surface actually heightens one's predictive v
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The new chapters allow Bob to spell out his unique arguments for deflation, and a lot more. He proves that every market offers a story, if you know where to look and how to tell it -- that is Bob's exceptional gift. No financial story could be more
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No market that permitted such practices could be called "transparent." It's even less imaginable that in a transparent market, regulators and ratings agencies would endorse such practices. And that is why the unimaginable
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Yes, the Wall Street Journal quoted a big-name economist saying, "The threat of a widespread depression is real..."
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In Part I of this series, you learned about the basics of Elliott wave patterns. Part II introduced you to "alternate counts" and ways to identify the market position in the wave pattern. Part III talked about the Fibonacci sequenc
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t's Federal Open Market Committee time again. And, even before the June 24 meeting adjourned, word-parsers were dissecting the "minutes" like a high school biology student with a frog. In short: While everyone with a pulse guesses
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Will the next major move in the U.S. stock market be similar to the move depicted by the chart of the SASE Index?
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"Who will be the next President of the United States?" may be the top question on the minds of Americans today, but right behind it is this one: Is the stock market's October 10 low the FINAL bottom?
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It's rubbish to assume that the stock indexes reflect in any way the actual gains of equity investors themselves....
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Math-based theoretical models of finance dominated academia and Wall Street for a generation, though in recent years the flaws and weaknesses in these models become increasing visible...
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In theory, credit-rating agencies are to companies what Kelley Blue Book is to cars. In reality, however, this is not the case with credit-rating agencies. So often, a rating service will assign unit "x" a good-to-excellent grade -
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Most fairytales have a catch word or phrase that, when repeated, makes all the danger and pain magically -- "poof!" -- disappear into thin air: "Rumpelstiltskin," "Beetlejuice," "There's
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"Some people advocate 'paper trading' as a learning tool. Paper trading is useful for the testing of methodology, but it is of no value in learning about trading. In fact, it can be detrimental, by imbuing the novice with a false sense of s
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Think the U.S. economy has gone to the dogs? You may be more right than you thought. A Wednesday, August 27 L.A. Times article explains why consumer confidence is sinking to a 40-year low, via a science experiment involving -- well -- two
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Fear and greed. The human predilection for cyclic, emotional progression and the basis of the Elliott Wave Principle. We are up to our necks in the fear side of the cycle, and for plenty of good reasons. The Sword of Damocles was only hanging by a s
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According to the mainstream experts, the U.S. stock market had one "New Year's Resolution": put the pain of 2008 behind it and start 2009 off on a strong, confident foot. NO. SUCH. LUCK...
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It's no secret Robert Prechter has a reputation of being bearish. But let's put that label aside for a moment – we're not ashamed that his recommended cash portfolio outperformed the stock market for 10+ years running; it's just that label
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An increasingly loud chorus of investors expects the imminent demise of the US dollar and US Treasuries. They also expect that an exploding monetary base and the US’s structural problems will lead to massive inflation. This opinion may pro
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The infinity-or-bust syndrome holds that in an unfolding bear market, it is theoretically possible for a formerly high flying stock (such as Fannie Mae) to plunge, sometimes by “80%, 90% and 98%,” an infinite number of
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As the year 2007 rolled into 2008, the mainstream financial experts were certain of one thing (if you don't count death and taxes): Inflation would take the U.S. economy by storm and trigger an across-the-board flight out of the rate-sensitive bond
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Companies can't stay in business by making stuff people won't buy. If that seems patently obvious, please remember that the Federal Reserve considers itself an exception to the rule....
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Bernanke's 2002 speech was titled, "Deflation: Making Sure 'It' Doesn't Happen Here." It was a manifesto which spelled out the tools and means of influence the Fed could employ in an anti-deflation policy. Seven y
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Newton dominated scientific thought for 300 years but didn't "get" crowd psychology
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Deflation is Coming and There's Nothing Bernanke Can Do About It. Watch part 2 of 3 of Robert Prechter's interview with Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker on Tuesday, Feb. 23, 2010.
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Whether you keep up with EWI's Free Updates on our website or via our daily eZines (sign up here), I'm sure the phrase "mainstream financial 'experts'" is not lost on you. We often use it to point out mainstream media follies when
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The Federal Reserve has fired more rounds on its bailout bazooka than Rambo in hopes of keeping the leading pillars of the U.S. economy afloat. This extension of virtually unlimited credit, says Bernanke, will stave off another Great Depression. Is
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Raise your hand if you agree with this famous quote from Baron Rothschild, an 18th century British banker and a member of one of the world's richest families: "The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."
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Is it time to pin on those Whip Inflation Now buttons once again? According to many mainstream experts, the answer is YES. They're leading the charge for a "WIN 2" campaign in the United States, and filling the financial airwaves w
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Markets NEVER need a news-related "reason" to trend up or down -- if anything, today's stock market trend anticipates the type of broader news story you'll be reading tomorrow. This truth is lost on the vast majority of reporters a
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The common assumption these days is that if only we can support deflating values of housing and other assets – even if artificially, for a time – then we can stop the broader deflation. Yet, despite tri
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The action in stocks around the world over the past two months has raised a skeptical eyebrow for some investors, yet for others it has reignited the hopes of a new bull market. How do you know which group is right? Knowing "wave personalit
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General Motors has just issued its first public income statement since emerging from the ashes of bankruptcy four months ago. The results for the "New GM"? Well, mixed... All of which is to say, "Old GM" -- the fo
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Every trader and analyst has favorite techniques to use when trading. But where traditional technical studies fall short, the Wave Principle kicks in to show you high probability price targets and, just as importantly, how to distinguish hi
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Initially, I wanted to compare and contrast deflation and disinflation. But at this point, it is rather obvious that the horse is out of the barn. Can there be any doubt that we are in a deflationary cycle? It's time to end academic debates. We are
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In the first article of this series, you learned the basics of Elliott wave patterns. Now let’s take a look at how we can (or can't) identify completed wave structures in order to see where the market is within a larger pattern (o
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At EWI's Message Board, readers ask us dozens of questions, daily. We try and answer everyone, and the best Q&As we publish for all to see. Below are our three nominees in the "Best Question" category for the month
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Last Friday (February 5) was yet another interesting day to compare the stock market action with the explanations from conventional analysts. (This show never gets old, I swear.) Around midday, the Dow was down almost 170 points; everything pointed
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Bullish a year ago, Robert Prechter Now Sees "the Biggest Bubble in History." Watch part 1 of 3 of Robert Prechter's interview with Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker on Tuesday, Feb. 23, 2010.
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Not to make light of real "distress," it seems to me that apart from super-wealthy homeowners, any homeowner who needs to sell would find this a distressing environment. In 2006 the median sale price of existing U.S. homes was $221
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The economy follows the stock market. It's a fact typically overlooked by conventional market forecasters who think the opposite. From an Elliott wave perspective, their thinking is simply backwards. Here's a good example...
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the absolute majority of analysts and investors see recent economic improvements as positive for the stock market. They even say that there are "feedback loops" between the two: As the economy improves, stocks rise; as stocks rise,
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Real estate is the one financial market everyone cares about. Now that home prices are down as much as 25% in some parts of the U.S., overseas homeowners – in Europe, Asia and Australia – are starting to worry about what will hap
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If you get nothing by way of a real answer from the government, it's reasonable to conclude that the government doesn't have a real answer...
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Maybe there is some formula to heal our current economic wounds. But how do we fix the very real problem of America’s declining competitiveness? If we don’t address it – and soon – then all the economic pain a
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I've known a handful of other people who fit this description, but none of them were a pleasure to know personally. In fact these qualities are often a good formula for being an SOB...
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For those of us living in North America, tomorrow (November 26) is Thanksgiving Day. For many the day includes the time-honored tradition of going around the dinner table and asking each guest one simple question: "What are you grateful for
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Was Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson correct in saying, "Our capital markets are the deepest, most efficient, and most transparent in the world." (emphasis added)....?
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Was the $32 billion supply of ZERO-YIELD securities available at today's Treasury auction enough to meet the demand?
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In Part I of this series, you learned about the basics of Elliott wave patterns. Part II introduced you to "alternate counts" and ways to identify the market position in the wave pattern. Part III talked about the Fibonacci sequenc
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Here's an interesting question we've just received at EWI's Message Board: "Dear EWI, as the Madoff hoopla is going full blast today on TV, I would be interested to hear your thoughts on this question: Are today's banks in their vast majori
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Is a house the "surefire" investment we've been led to believe in recent decades? Do prices always rebound quickly? Is the worst over for the housing market? If you need to move soon, should you rent or buy?...
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I must be honest: Limit-down trading in the DJIA and S&P futures on Friday morning (October 24) scared me. Yes, I work for Elliott Wave International. Yes, I know that our recent forecasts have been calling for another drop in stock
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Well, here we are – a year-and-a-half since the start of the crisis, and hardly out of the woods. While we at EWI take pride in having prepared our subscribers, we take no pleasure in watching the devastation that this crisis has been caus
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"Fannie, Freddie Set to Pay $210 Million in Retention Bonuses" -- where's the coverage of THIS story?
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In his August 2009 Theorist, Bob Prechter explains what "the prudent thing to do" in the markets is, based on Elliott wave patterns and sentiment indicators -- plus the Dow's 3/8 Fibonacci retracement from the March 9 low.
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Elliott Wave International analyst Mark Galasiewski will use Elliott wave analysis to describe what lies ahead for Asian and Middle Eastern markets at the Fortress Markets Forum 2010 Outlook in Cairo, Egypt, on January 29, 2010.
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In hindsight, it may appear more-than-obvious that Lehman was next in the line of Wall Street firms going from “the good life” to life support. But what about before? The public was oblivious all the way up to the red-flashing LE
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It’s not easy to stand apart from mass hysteria—to believe that most of what’s in the financial news is wrong or distorted, to believe that most "important financial people are either lying or deluded&mdash
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In recent days, the widely popular "News-Moves-Markets" notion has fallen faster than the role-model image of Olympic swimmer Michael Phelps (pictures of him "inhaling" pot were posted to the world, wide, web).
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Contrary to popular belief (in fundamental analysis), there's no such thing as "bad" news or "good" news. There's only news. And in turn the media's constant after-the-fact interpretations of that news as good or
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This week, Fitch Ratings announced that “Latvia and Lithuania’s ratings are under pressure from the sharp deterioration in public finances.” They've also just cut their rating on Greek government bonds, and S&a
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What options do we have regarding U.S. deficits? President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City gave three of them in his February 16 speech: doing nothing, inflating our way out of at least some of the debt... but there was also&
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In the last month, the finanical powers-that-be have pulled the trigger on a "bailout bazooka" AND dropped the ultimate bailout A-bomb. YET -- the big, bad grizzly goes unscathed, taking the financial world by storm like some indes
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Last week saw another nauseating milestone in the ongoing economic crisis. The price for one share of Citigroup is now the same as a McChicken sandwich: A buck and some change. For many, it's the ultimate wake-up call. But what about hearing said &a
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Is the most powerful of all waves right around the corner? The short answer is "YES." The long answer will help you anticipate where and when …
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When EWI President Robert Prechter sat down to write the first edition of "Conquer The Crash" in 2002, the idea that the United States would enter a period of what news authorities coined "economic Armageddon" sev
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On Monday March 1, I came across a striking image on the front page of a popular online news site. Under the caption "Leap of Faith," the drawing depicted a smiling investor effortlessly hurdling across a wide, open chasm from &
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The trendlines represented in these charts may not correspond perfectly, but if you look at them and conclude that confidence does not correlate with consumption, then I humbly suggest a trip to the optometrist...
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After climbing its way to the top of a speculative mania, the US economy is stuck like a cat in a tree. Which begs the question: Do the finanical Powers have the necessary equipment to save the economy and bring it back down slowly, and safely?
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On April 2 in London, the leaders of the Group of 20 industrial nations will meet to decide what to do about the financial crisis. This summer the crisis will be two years old; the G20 believes something finally must be done to end it once and for a
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The DJIA has been moving sideways for most of August, but the talk of "a new bull market" is getting louder. The optimism is back! If you randomly poll 100 average investors and ask them whether it's bullish or bearish for
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What about the people who NEVER get bailed out? Namely, the shareholders and taxpayers who ALWAYS get it right in the neck -- even as CEOs who created the subprime mess get multi-million dollar "severance" packages, and big oversea
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Talk about deflationary spirals on NPR? Get the low-down from the forecaster who first wrote about a deflationary crash.
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When your hands formed in the womb, they first looked like round paddles growing equally in all directions. Then, in the places between your fingers, cells ceased growing and growth was instead directed to the five digits. This structured p
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Market analysis is a venture in which historical studies have a clear practical value -- namely, as a tool that you can use well, badly, or not at all. Not at all is better than badly, but history done well usually produces market analysis done well
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Today is the official debut of my new column titled "Financial Myths Exposed." One at a time, I will reveal why some of the most prominent mainstream beliefs have little or no basis in reality. To kick things off, I'm starting with
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Elliott wave analysts sometimes hear the criticism that patterns in market charts can be "open to interpretation." Does that happen? Absolutely. (Although, there are tools an Elliottician can always employ to firm up the w
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On a day when the DJIA fell another 678 points to close below 8,600, it seems appropriate to talk about the herding impulse in humans. We at EWI observed decades ago that the financial markets are anything by rational. Now the mainstream media is al
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I do admire any person or group willing to perform a regular self-evaluation...
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Marketing hype doesn't scare me. What does scare me is a guy with an audience of millions who actually believes that wealth and poverty are the products of Ben Bernanke's voice...
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Last week's U.S. trade deficit number came in below expectations, which many se as a good economic sign. Is it also bullish for the stock market? It's not a stretch that many (if not most) analysts and investors see it that way. Bu
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In case you were hiding out Tiger Woods' style far away from the mainstream media over last month, let me be the first to say: January saw an abrupt end to the US stock market's record-setting winning streak. Last count, the Dow Jones Industrial Ave
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Have investors panicked and capitulated yet? Not according to this chart based on volume data since January 2008.
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If there was ever a year of having too much of a "good thing"...that year was 2008.
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According to the mainstream experts, all bonds are NOT created equal. There is debt, and then there is government-backed debt. And never the twain shall meet. So, when all asset-backed forms of credit were pulled under by the financial tsunami, the
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Every investor knows that you should "buy low and sell high." Yet few actually follows these rules. Why? The Elliott Wave Principle explains it best: investors herd.
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Once in a while I'll see one of our analysts offer a forecast at three or four degrees of trend. I've very rarely seen one at five degrees of trend. What I've never seen or read is a forecast that involves a point in a pattern at six degrees of tren
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The chaos in housing is just the leading edge of a “great transformation,” one that extends beyond real estate to the larger economy and many aspects of our everyday lives. See this story about Fannie Mae's recent troubles.
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Oh, wait -- that's right, the person doing the giving is you. Sorry about that. I'm giving too. I feel your pain. On the long-shot chance you haven't heard about how deeply the government has gotten into the bailout business, $7.4 trillion is the an
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There is one question that we at Elliott Wave International get over and over again: "You were correct with your predictions of deflation. But now that it's here, why can't the government do [fill in the blank] to stop it?
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A new report by Halifax, a UK agency that compiles a closely-watched Halifax House Price Index, shows that "prices unexpectedly jumped in May by the most since 2002, adding to signs the worst of the recession is over." (Bloomberg.c
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In the U.S., consumer spending represents about 70% of GDP. After decades of an inflationary “crack-up” boom, people are stuffed to the gills with consumer debt. But it appears that its long build-up has turned down, which is a m
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Elliott Wave International analyst Mark Galasiewski will use Elliott wave analysis to describe what lies ahead for Japanese and East Asian markets at the CLSA Japan Forum in Tokyo, on February 25-26, 2010.
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People have lost confidence, and the markets reflect their concern. Without confidence, the financial house of cards falls down. This is exactly what Bob Prechter writes in his best-selling business book, Conquer the Crash.
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On December 8 of this week -- almost nine months after the RTSI peak -- Standard & Poor’s cut Russia’s debt rating, the first such downgrade since 1999. This makes you wo forex news :: view details »
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On December 8 of this week -- almost nine months after the RTSI peak -- Standard & Poor’s cut Russia’s debt rating, the first such downgrade since 1999. This makes you wo forex news :: view details »
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Several recent reports have pointed out that, in the years before its global train wreck, AIG ran itself less like an insurance company and more like a hedge fund. On that, read this quote about modern-day hedge funds from the May
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It wasn’t that long ago that people bought stuff they didn’t need with money they didn’t have. Easy credit and houses-as-ATM’s fueled consumerism to the boiling point. In hindsight, observers have de
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It's the portfolio that includes Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. And AIG, too. Then there's the banks you hold: big banks, small banks, bank stocks and more. Your portfolio has also recently been waist-deep in the commercial paper market -- lending to t
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My question for the "Fast Recovery" crowd is simple: Commissioner Gordon dialed the Bat Phone all year long and the PPT took the call every time. So why was there no protection from the plunge in Gotham City?
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On Monday, April 27, and the early morning of April 28, the Dow took a flying leap south in a strong sell-off. As for why, the mainstream experts had one animal on the brain. Not bull. Not bear. But rather, Pig. Namely: the phase-four hog flu that i
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In January 2003, Bob Prechter set the record straight, regarding the causes of Japan’s deflationary disease in the "Lost Decade" of the 1990s. He also saw parallels with the growing credit bubble in the United States. Out
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down some 800 points over the past three days (Oct. 15-17). Monday alone was its sixth steepest drop EVER, at 504 points. How does the recent sell off in stocks fit into the big picture AND does that pict
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They considered this turn in their fortunes to be miraculous; with the benefit of hindsight, what they had discovered was the miraculous benefits of private ownership and free markets.
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Dear reader, the second chart DOES show a forecast. It published exactly as is, in EWI's October 2007 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast (release date: September 27). What you see on the screen now is exactly what our subscribers saw then: A red-alert
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It's becoming a hazy memory for many investors, but you may still remember the unbelievable volatility we saw in the DJIA and S&P500 just eight months ago. The reason why those wild gyrations of the world's benchmark stock index were so hard
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By now, the financial panic of March 2009 is a hazy memory for many investors. The Dow is above 10,000. "The Great Recession" is apparently "over." And according to the popular vote, the man to thank is Ben Bernan
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Today, six years after its launch, the book reads like a script. Bob says, "We're about a third of the way through CTC. There are two-thirds left. There is still time for people to get ready, but not much." Here are some highlights
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As the economic crisis has unfolded, a lot of different financial issues have played their own special part, and most have had their "day in the headlines." But when it comes to sheer volume of media ink and airti
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President Obama has had plenty to say about the financial crisis, yet I think his most noteworthy comment to date came during his recent Tonight Show appearance...
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It wasn’t that long ago that people bought stuff they didn’t need with money they didn’t have. Easy credit and houses-as-ATM’s fueled consumerism to the boiling point. In hindsight, observers have de
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I don’t know what comes along more often -- Halley’s Comet or The Prechter Point. What I do know is that we face the very real potential of reaching The Prechter Point this year...
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"It's one thing to know how something works, but quite another to make it work for you. The Wave Principle is no exception..."
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We are facing an "unprecedented financial crisis," and the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury are undertaking similarly "unprecedented actions" to mitigate the contraction of credit and damage to the U.S. econo
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